The basics:
- Emerson College poll shows Sherrill and Ciattarelli tied at 43%
- 11% of New Jersey voters remain undecided in the 2025 race
- Sherrill leads with young voters; Ciattarelli strong with over-50s
- Economy, threats to democracy and housing affordability emerge as top voter issues
A new poll out Thursday from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill has sent a shockwave through New Jersey’s pivotal gubernatorial race. The latest finds a dead heat between Democrat Mikie Sherrill (43%) and Republican Jack Ciattarelli (43%), with 11% undecided.
As NJBIZ has reported, recent polling has showed a tightening race; however, Sherrill still had an advantage between 6 and 10 points. Ciattarelli released an internal poll this week that had him up 1 point.
Notably, the survey took place Sept. 22–23, right after the first gubernatorial debate of the cycle, held Sept. 21 at Rider University. Read the NJBIZ recap of that clash here. The Emerson poll surveyed 935 somewhat/very likely New Jersey voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 points.
“The first Emerson College general election survey of New Jersey’s 2025 election for governor reveals a tightly contested race in the Garden State,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Young voters, under 40, break for Sherrill by large margins, 58% to 24%. The race tightens to seven points among voters in their 40s, with Sherrill leading 47% to 40%, then Ciattarelli flips the script among voters over 50, leading Sherrill 52% to 36%.”
Dividing line
Kimball noted a stark gender divide among Jersey voters.
“Women break for Sherrill by 10 points, 46% to 36%, while men break for Ciattarelli by 12 points, 51% to 39%,” said Kimball. “Notably, women are over twice as likely to be undecided at 15% compared to 6% of men.”
The poll also looked at the approvals of two current officeholders who are central characters in the race – President Donald Trump and Gov. Phil Murphy.
Trump has a 41% approval; versus 51% disapproval, and 9% neutral. Meanwhile Murphy has a 35% job approval; compared with 44% disapproval, and 21% neutral.
“Both President Trump and Gov. Murphy are underwater among Jersey voters,” said Kimball. “Sherrill is trying to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, at the national level, and Ciattarelli is trying to tie Sherrill to Murphy and the cost of living at the state level.”
Key takeaways from poll:
- Should the next governor work with or stand up to the Trump administration?
- 51% stand up to
- 49% work with
- Since May, those wanting the next governor to stand up to Trump increased 4 points (47% to 51%). At the same time, those who prefer the governor to work with Trump fell (53% to 49%)
- Top issues:
- 51% Economy
- 13% Threats to democracy
- 11% Housing affordability
- 6% Health care
- 5% Immigration policy
- 5% Crime
- Who holds responsibility for property tax rates?
- 21% Governor
- 15% Legislature
- 10% Town governments
- 6% Local school districts
- 46% All of the above
- School districts mergers:
- 46% Support
- 22% Oppose
- 32% Neutral or no opinion
- Who holds responsibility for utility costs?
- 30% Utility companies
- 22% Governor
- 7% Federal government
- 4% Grid operator
- 35% All of the above
As NJBIZ has reported, utility costs have been a key issue in this race.
“New Jersey Democrats blame utility companies for the cost of utilities at 36%, whereas Republicans blame Gov. Murphy at 36% – independents are split between the governor (27%) and utility companies (23%),” said Kimball.
This latest poll is just more evidence of what is set to be a lively stretch run for this critical race to succeed Gov. Murphy.
The full poll results are available here.
