Listen to this articleThe basics:
- Polls show a close race between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli
- Debates centered on affordability, taxes and energy costs
- Both campaigns trade attacks linking rivals to Trump and Murphy
- Experts say turnout and independent voters will decide the outcome
The race to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy as New Jersey’s next governor is entering its final stretch — and the tone is getting sharper by the day. With just days to go before voters head to the polls, the contest between Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli has tightened. Vote-by-mail is already underway, and in-person early voting begins Oct. 25, running through Nov. 2. Election Day is Nov. 4.
Recent polling underscores just how close the race may be. An Emerson College survey showed the two candidates in a dead heat, while other reports – including one from Fox News – have shown Sherrill with a lead of around 8 points. Several polls have had the race between 6–10 points in favor of Sherrill. The latest from Quinnipiac University showed Sherrill ahead by 6 points but suggested Ciattarelli voters were more enthusiastic about their candidate.
The slim margin, coupled with Ciattarelli’s narrow loss in 2021 and gains by President Donald Trump in 2024, have Republicans believing that the race is well within striking distance; particularly in an off-year election when turnout tends to dip.
The two candidates have now met twice on the debate stage, clashing over such issues such as affordability, taxes, energy costs and much more — while also trading jabs tying one another to Trump and Murphy. And the campaign trail and ads have turned increasingly combative.
In recent weeks alone, the campaigns sparred over a dustup involving Sherrill’s old naval records, how they were obtained and whether she was involved in a cheating scandal. Meanwhile, a Democratic attack ad accused Ciattarelli of supporting a 10% sales tax, and allegations during the second debate tied him to opioid marketing.
Republicans argue that a Sherrill administration would amount to a third Democratic term in Trenton – while Democrats say Ciattarelli will be New Jersey’s version of Trump. The role of the president in the campaign took on added salience with reports that the White House “terminated” the Hudson River rail tunnel project amid a lengthy federal government shutdown. The work has been widely deemed vital to the regional economy.
Nation is watching
Earlier this month, Stockton University released a new poll that finds more than two-thirds of New Jersey voters are dissatisfied with the current state of the economy. And 58% feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction (among other notable findings).
Beyond national politics, polling shows that – as usual in the Garden State – it will be critical for the candidates to break through with independents. Also important will be the strength of the respective candidates’ ground games and turnout operations.
Those forces are at play in a race that the nation is watching. New Jersey and Virginia’s gubernatorial races offer an early glimpse of the national sentiment and serve as an early bellwether, sandwiched in this off-year cycle after the presidential election and before the 2026 midterms.
NJBIZ recently connected with a top political expert in the state, Alyssa Maurice, assistant director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy and head of research at Stockton University. Maurice spearheaded that recent poll from the center. She offered her take on the race and the dynamics shaping these final weeks.
Expert insight
NJBIZ: With just a few weeks to go, what is your assessment about where the race stands?
Maurice: At this point, the campaigns are focused on rallying their base. The candidates are both facing the challenge of having to energize their voters in an off-year when the electorate is not as engaged, so ground game and get-out-the-vote efforts are going to be critical.
That’s where the money pouring into this race can make a difference. The money coming in is also a sign of just how high the stakes are for both parties.
The candidates are both facing the challenge of having to energize their voters in an off-year when the electorate is not as engaged…
– Alyssa Maurice, assistant director, William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy
The Democratic Party is at an inflection point. The opposition to Trump this time around has been pretty fractured and they’re still figuring out where to go from here. They’re going to be looking for a win in New Jersey to build some momentum.
For Republicans, Trump wants a win here to signal his strength ahead of the midterms and show his base is still rallying around him despite continued economic frustration.
NJBIZ: What areas of the state are you keeping a close eye on where the candidates are looking to make breakthroughs?
Maurice: Sherrill’s path to victory is going to be running up the numbers in the densely populated Democratic strongholds in northern New Jersey, like Essex, Hudson and Middlesex counties.
Turnout has been low in urban centers throughout the state, though, and Sherrill underperformed in these areas in the primary – particularly among minority voters – so that could be a vulnerability for her.
We saw a pretty dramatic coalition shift in 2024 in New Jersey with Trump making inroads among Hispanic communities, so Ciattarelli’s going to be looking to sustain that trend in places like Paterson and Passaic to supplement the votes he’ll get in the less populated but reliably red counties.
Dissecting the debates
NJBIZ: What were some of the takeaways from the two debates?
Maurice: The debate once again was centered on affordability issues like property taxes, housing costs, and utility costs — which are the top issues for voters.
Sherrill continued to tie these issues to Trump, citing tariffs and funding cuts or freezes coming down from the federal administration. Ciattarelli pointed to Murphy and Democratic leadership, particularly on energy costs.
Ciattarelli continues to try to paint Sherrill as a continuation of the current administration, knowing that voters in New Jersey tend not to vote for the same party for a third consecutive term.
The guilt-by-association strategy we’ve seen throughout the campaigns continued during the debate, with both candidates trying to pin their opponent to unpopular party leaders. In our recent polling, we found that Trump is less popular among New Jersey voters than Murphy, so he may be a bigger liability for Ciattarelli than Murphy is for Sherrill among independent voters.
They really just leaned into their existing positions on things like electricity costs, immigration or abortion. I don’t think either were set on changing minds. I think they recognize that in today’s climate, most voters have picked a side, so they really focused on just cementing their message, talking directly to their base, and hoping to motivate them to show up this election.
NJBIZ: What has stood out in terms of the candidates’ strategies on the campaign trail?
Maurice: It’s been interesting to see how much Ciattarelli has embraced Trump this time around. He gave him an ‘A’ grade during the debate and largely praised what he’s done so far. It’s clear the campaign is relying heavily on the Trump base to show up for him.
There seemed to be an enthusiasm gap in 2024 with depressed Democratic turnout and an energized Republican base that led to Harris’ narrow victory [in N.J.] compared to previous presidential cycles. Democrats are counting on Trump backlash to reenergize the party here.
Tension mounts
NJBIZ: Things have gotten very tense over the last few weeks — between the naval records dustup, the 10% sales tax attack ad, and now this latest clash over whether Ciattarelli’s companies helped promote opioids. What’s your take on the increased tensions and whether these incidents/accusations are landing with voters?
Maurice: The heightened attacks we’ve seen are another sign of the high stakes of this race.
The evidence is mixed on what effect these types of attacks have on the electorate, but I think when campaigns get ugly, candidates run the risk of turning voters off to the political process altogether. It can foster cynicism.
NJBIZ: Much of the polling has had Sherrill up 6–10 points — the Emerson poll had it tied, Fox News had her up eight, other conservative polls had it near deadlocked. What is your sense of how close this race is – or isn’t? And do you think a winner will be declared on election night or will it be a drawn-out process?
Maurice: I don’t think it’s too surprising to see Sherrill with a modest lead in much of the polling. Although Republicans have been narrowing the registration gap in recent years, Democrats do still have an advantage of more than 800,000 voters.
There’s also a trend in New Jersey where voters tend to vote for governor in opposition to the party in the White House. So those dynamics put some wind at Sherrill’s back.
That said, polls aren’t meant to be precise predictions. You have to account for the margin of error, so they’re presenting a range of plausible estimates at a moment in time during the election cycle.
It’s best to look at overall trends rather than focus on any single number, and the big picture tells us this is still a tight race that all comes down to turnout.
