New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
We’re about to enter the final week of the 2025 governor’s race – a contest that seems like it’s been going on forever. Alex will say Jack Ciattarelli will win, and Dan will predict a victory for Mikie Sherrill; that is indisputable. So, I’m going to ask you to show your work and explain how they win and why?
Alex Wilkes: Mikie has the machine of this state, and Jack has the heart. We have beaten back the Democrats’ institutional might before, but not without a smart and disciplined close from the top on down.
Mikie has a voter registration advantage; enormous amounts of special interest money backing her campaign; the organizing prowess of public sector unions and strong county and municipal leaders; a party that makes smart use of pre-Election Day voting options, and – as a result of all of this – public polling that has had her stubbornly, even if narrowly, in the lead. And believe me: Mikie needs this well-built engine firing on all cylinders because she is an underwhelming candidate, and should she win on the back of these institutional advantages, she would be a disaster in executive leadership—an opinion many Democrats share.
If we are able to overcome all of that, it will solely happen as a result of Jack’s indefatigable campaign that has personally stepped into every house, place of worship, neighborhood, business, and, of course, diner in this state. That kind of momentum is potent because it comes from a genuine love for this place and the hope of a fresh start. If you don’t believe me, look to national Democrats, who are going into debt paying Kamala’s leftover bills, but continuing to send money here.
And even in the face of the resistance of powerful interests who benefit handsomely from the status quo (and even more so from an empty, figurehead governor), Jack has given us many real reasons to hope: new voter registrations breaking for Republicans every month at an incredible clip; a finance operation that is matching Mikie dollar for dollar; Republicans making much better use of Vote-By-Mail and early voting options; rallies that overflow quickly with new faces; high-profile Democratic endorsements, sustained outreach to communities that feel forgotten by Democrats, and consistent numbers within public and private polling that show unaffiliated and undecided voters breaking our way paired with a majority view that the state is going in the wrong direction.
This is a winnable contest for Republicans, but as I mentioned above, it will take a heavy lift from everyone from Jack on down. Jack’s already doing everything he possibly can. It’s up to the rest of us now to leave no stone unturned. It means pushing our family and friends to vote early this week, taking the time to sort out someone’s Vote-By-Mail issue, knocking on doors, and making phone calls. Don’t assume someone else will do it if you don’t. Jack has given this his all; now it’s our turn to meet him there in the final days for the future of our kids and this state.
Dan Bryan: It’s always nice to be asked to make an argument that, as Winston Churchill would say, has the added benefit of being true.
Mikie Sherrill has led in every independent poll that has been released. And last week, we saw her lead begin to widen to near-double digits. Her lead in the polling average is high enough (~+5) now that even the more nervous of Democratic Nellies are starting to feel good.
The early vote numbers are bigger today for Democrats than they were at this point in 2021, when they were crucial ahead of a red wave on election day. Building a firewall of early votes not only provides a cushion against an unexpected ED turnout, it allows for a more targeted, efficient GOTV operation.
Put simply, there is no metric right now that looks good for Ciattarelli or bad for Mikie. The argument for Ciattarelli is entirely vibes-based (which, as we’ve seen, isn’t always wrong).
The race isn’t over yet, but the path for Ciattarelli is getting slimmer by the day.
Do you think most voters have already made up their minds, and that it’s now a function of turnout, or are there still significant blocks of people making up their minds?
Dan: It’s all about turnout at this point in the campaign, David!
At this point in the game, the vast majority of New Jerseyans have long ago made up their minds on whom to support. The only question now is which campaign’s GOTV operation is stronger, and which side has the most broad-based enthusiasm to make their voices heard.
Paid media isn’t aimed at persuasion at this point – it’s aimed at getting people out to vote.
Alex: It will mostly be turnout, especially for Republicans who are counting on lower propensity Republicans, soft Democrats, and unhappy unaffiliated voters to help put us over the top. I think in our polarizing times there are very few people who are truly undecided, though some might be still scratching their heads about Mikie’s mid-debate, defamatory breakdown that Jack actually “killed” people.
Will Sherrill and Ciattarelli have coattails in State Assembly and down-ballot races?
Alex: Generally, yes. Save for a complete romp on either side, I think that given the current map, the unsuccessful candidate actually has the ability to pull over candidates in swing districts over the finish line.
Dan: I don’t think the top of the ticket necessarily directly affects races down ballot – in 2013, when Chris Christie won reelection by 20 points, New Jersey voters also sent large Democratic majorities to both houses of the Legislature. Voters can be more sophisticated than some pundits seem to think.
Is it better for candidates down ballot if the top of the ticket performs well? Of course. But it’s never a direct line.
The good news for Democrats: they have a candidate at the top of the ballot that appeals across the aisle and routinely wins in red parts of her district, something that should help them hold swing districts and maybe even flip a seat or two.
President Trump has had a sort of omnipotent presence in this year’s gubernatorial election in New Jersey. What’s your take on that?
Alex: President Trump has had an omnipotent presence over all of American political life for the last decade, so I’m not sure that it will be especially significant for this one election – at least in the way Mikie Sherrill wants it to be. Every opinion that could possibly be formed about Donald Trump has already been formed. The man has been accused of just about everything, sued, arraigned, and shot at (twice). The affluent, white boomers booming over at the No Kings rallies still hate Donald Trump and were never going to vote for Jack. Now, for the rest of state that doesn’t pray at the altar of Morning Joe, consider this: the “Trump issues” are still favored in New Jersey (strong immigration enforcement, for example); since the last election, President Trump has brokered significant peace deals and legislation providing middle-class tax cuts that are widely popular, and, most of all, public polling shows that voters are looking for someone who will actually work with this White House. Moreover, the President has been a critical part of convincing Republicans to vote early and opening doors with non-traditional constituencies. There’s always a Trump factor, but I have a hard time believing it carries the same novelty as 2017 – especially in a state he lost only by a few percentage points just one year ago.
Dan: Tip O’Neill used to say all politics is local. Now, unfortunately for all of us, all politics is national.
Jack Ciattarelli’s undying fealty to President Trump will ultimately prove to be his biggest misstep of the campaign. Even if President Trump wasn’t hugely unpopular in New Jersey, I think voters want someone that will stand up for them, not party bosses. And Ciattarelli has shown time and time again that he is totally and completely incapable of standing up to President Trump even a little bit.
I don’t think President Trump is the only motivating factor for voters this year, but he is a major one.
Since I frequently turn to the two of you for advice on certain matters, I want to ask about polling. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, released on October 23, included data collected between October 3 and October 17, and the staleness of that data concerns me. Now they’re releasing subsequent data from the same poll, and frankly, I’ve decided not to use it. What should be the best practice for journalists in looking at the age of data, and for publishing internal polls and interest group polling this close to Election Day?
Dan: If there’s a good reason (or excuse) to release polling data this late, I’d love to hear it. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have run it either.
No one should be letting grass grow as they analyze their data – millions of dollars were spent in paid media between October 3rd and October 23rd. Data from the 3rd is better than nothing, but who cares what the race looked like three weeks ago?
Alex: I think the New Jersey Globe provides a good framework for keeping the traditional pollsters honest (like in this case here with Rutgers’ outdated data), while also providing opportunities for new and partisan pollsters to present their data fully without an editorial bias.
But all-in-all, color me skeptical about a polling outfit that had Jack down TWENTY in the summer and then down 5 at the beginning of October.
