Sherrill leads Ciattarelli in final Quinnipiac poll

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Quinnipiac University released its final poll for the New Jersey gubernatorial race on Oct. 30 – which finds Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli 51% to 43% among likely voters.

The poll, which surveyed 1,166 likely voters between Oct. 23-28 (margin of error of +/- 3.8 points), shows a slight tick up for Sherrill in the home stretch of the campaign but is in line with its previous poll released earlier this month, which had Sherrill up 50-44.

Quinnipiac analysts say that Sherrill’s advantage is driven largely by her strength among women and edge on issues such as health care and government ethics. Meanwhile, Ciattarelli has the edge with independents and voters who rank taxes as their top concern.

“Will another Democrat assume the reins from Governor Phil Murphy? In the final days of a very combative race, Mikie Sherrill’s 20 percentage point advantage with women fuels her overall lead of eight points over Jack Ciattarelli,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Key findings:

• Overall ballot:
  • 51% Sherrill
  • 43% Ciattarelli
  • 1% Libertarian Vic Kaplan
  • 1% Socialist Worker Party’s Joanne Kuniansky
  • 3% undecided
  • 1% refused
• Party support:
  • Democrats back Sherrill 94% – 1%
  • Republicans back Ciattarelli 93% – 4%
  • Independents: Ciattarelli 47%, Sherrill 44%
• Gender
  • Women favor Sherrill 57% – 37%
  • Men favor Ciattarelli 50% – 43%
• Favorability:
  • Sherrill:
    • 47% favorable
    • 38% unfavorable
  • Ciattarelli:
    • 43% favorable
    • 47% unfavorable
• Gov. Phil Murphy approval: 45% approve, 47% disapprove
  • Democrats: 83% approve vs. 9% disapprove
  • Republicans: 88% disapprove vs. 7% approve
  • Independents: 56% disapprove vs. 36% approve
• President Donald Trump: 40% approve, 56% disapprove
  • Republicans: 88% approve vs. 8% disapprove
  • Democrats: 95% disapprove vs. 3% approve
  • Independents: 55% disapprove vs. 39% approve
• Top issues for voters:
  • Taxes: 25% (Ciattarelli leads with 72% among these respondents)
  • Ethics in government: 16% (Sherrill leads with 78% among these respondents)
  • Health care: 14% (Sherrill leads with 87% among these respondents)

Full poll results can be found here.

A tight race

This latest poll dropped amid a batch of final polls on the race, including one from Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill (showing Sherrill up one point), Suffolk University (Sherrill up four), and Fox News (Sherrill up seven).

Taken together, the polls have shown a tight race with Sherrill ahead in the single digits – with most political analysts stressing this the race will be determined on the strength of voter turnout, ground game and how independents land.

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