Democrat Mikie Sherrill has a 50%-49% lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in an AtlasIntel poll released this morning.
The poll gives Ciattarelli a 54%-46% lead among independents.
Sherrill is ahead by 18 points among women, a 19-point lead among Blacks, and a 23-point among Hispanics. Ciattarelli is ahead of Sherrill by three points among voters with a family income over $100,000, while Sherrill is up by 18 points among college-educated voters.
Donald Trump is upside-down in New Jersey, with approvals of 47%-52%, while Gov. Phil Murphy is also underwater: 43%-53%.
In a performance evaluation, Trump is at 49%-51%, Murphy at 53%-47%, Attorney General Matt Platkin is at 59%-40%, and Lt. Governor Tahesha Way is at 61%-39%.
Atlas Intel received an A+ rating from Silver Bulletin’s Nate Silver earlier this year. Silver was the founder of FiveThirtyEight. The New York Times put AtlasIntel on its list of most reliable pollsters.
Six polls released on Thursday all have Sherrill ahead, albeit some closer than others:
* An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll shows Sherrill and Ciattarelli in a statistical dead heat, with Sherrill leading, 49%-48%. |
* A Suffolk University poll has Sherrill up by four points, 46%-42%, within the margin of error.
* A Quinnipiac University poll shows Sherrill ahead by eight points, 51%-43%. Ciattarelli’s pollster, Adam Geller, disputed the Quinnipiac results, arguing the poll used random digit dial and not a voter list.
* A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company gives Sherrill a seven-point lead against Ciattarelli, 52%-45%.
* A YouGov online poll provides Sherrill with her largest margin, ten points, with a 54%-44% lead over Ciattarelli. But this poll was in the field from October 17-28, making some of the data two weeks old.
* A poll conducted for Red Eagle Politics, a Republican group, by SoCal Strategies puts Sherrill ahead by seven points, 52%-45%. The same poll shows California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a dead heat, 43%-42%, among New Jersey voters against Vice President J.D. Vance in a 2028 general election matchup.
The AtlasIntel poll was conducted on October 25-30 using Random Digital Recruitment with a sample size of 639 likely voters and a margin of error of +/- 2%. Their sample consisted of 37.2% Democrats, 32.7% Republicans, and 30% independents.
