Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) is now in a toss-up race, according to the Cook Political Report (CPR), a top elections forecaster.
CPR had initially rated Kean’s 7th congressional district, a sprawling suburban district that has hosted competitive and expensive elections four cycles in a row, as “Leans Republican,” deferring to Kean’s strong electoral history and the district’s historic GOP lean. 7th district voters supported Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2024, though they opted for Joe Biden in 2020.
But in the wake of Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s narrow victory in the district last week, the forecaster has shifted it into its most competitive category.
“The combination of a tougher environment for the congressman, a likely stronger Democratic nominee, and this district’s long-term shift away from the GOP is enough to move this district from Lean Republican to Toss Up,” CPR House editor Erin Covey wrote.
Nine Democrats have launched campaigns for the district thus far; CPR identifies former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett and physician Tina Shah as the “frontrunners” – the pair have raised more money from donors than anyone else – while saying that national Democrats “have signaled they’d be willing to spend to keep another weak general election candidate from winning the primary.”
One other New Jersey district, Rep. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon)’s Paterson-based 9th district, is also rated as competitive by CPR. The district currently sits in the “Lean Democrat” column after it was unexpectedly carried by Trump last year, though Sherrill’s nearly 20-point victory there earlier this month has Democrats increasingly optimistic about their ability to re-elect Pou.
