New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein – or, this week, with New Jersey Globe Washington reporter Joey Fox – to discuss politics and issues.
I’m sure we’ll revisit it, but let’s step away from 2025 for this week and focus on future elections. Cory Booker is up next year. Is there any chance that he’s anything buy safe, and who should Republicans be looking at to run against him – either to try to beat him or to protect their down ballot candidates?
Alex Wilkes: New Jersey is blessed in many ways. Our politicians are not one of them—especially in our recent choices for United States Senator. We have career bureaucrat and selfless Smithsonian donor Andy Kim who replaced Gold Bar Bob, now making quorum in a different kind of federal building. And then there’s Cory.
Cory Booker, renown poet, gladiator, and selfie-taker, is currently the saddest “pick me” among 2028 Democratic presidential contenders. His 2026 Senate campaign and the people of New Jersey are mere stepping stones on yet another White House folly.
I’m not going to sugarcoat it: Republicans are still reeling from November 4th, and I don’t see someone right now who’s eager to be the first statewide test case in these volatile political times. But we should exercise caution in abandoning the seat entirely; a bad candidate at the top of the ticket, after all, can be a drag in places where we are competitive.
I could be wrong. We could have an amazing candidate out there paired with the right political environment. I think for now, though, Cory will happily make an ass out of himself in New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc. without a care in the world, especially for the people he’s supposed to serve. Without a line, however, maybe this race can get interesting before June. The gubernatorial contest showed a lot of enthusiasm and fundraising for new voices in the party. What I want to know is how could ambitious Democrats not be frustrated with Cory Booker’s vain prodigal son routine that rinses and repeats every 4 years?
Dan Bryan: Cory Booker is, as the handicappers like to say, very safe in next year’s US Senate election.
He’s been a phenomenal Senator for our state – at a time when we need it most, he has served with dignity, honor, and integrity. New Jersey is lucky to have him, and he will be a United States Senator for as long as he wants to be.
I don’t think they’ll ask for my advice, but the NJ GOP should be looking for someone that can move the party away from their destructive past, They need to show they can appeal to moderate voters in New Jersey, who just overwhelmingly rejected Jack Ciattarelli and chose Mikie Sherrill as our next Governor.
Can they win? No. But they can put themselves on a path away from right-wing extremism and back toward the middle ground.
The 11th district congressional race to replace Mikie Sherrill has started quickly, and the primary for a special election will likely be the last week of January or the first week of February. What do the Democratic and Republican primaries look like to you so far?
Dan: If the early enthusiasm we’re seeing on the Democratic side foretells anything, CD11 will be in good shape in 2026.
The clear frontrunner in the Democratic primary is Brendan Gill, the Essex County Commissioner who ran the campaigns of Phil Murphy and Cory Booker, and worked for Senator Lautenberg and Bill Pascrell. To me, Brendan is the spiritual successor of Congressman Pascrell – a scrapper who gets things done, a do-er in an age of talkers. I think he’s going to be tough to beat, although there is a long way to go and there are some other great candidates in the race (the ones who, you know, actually live in the district).
On the Republican side, Joe Hathaway is about as good a candidate as the Republicans can hope to field. I know Joe a little bit from his Christie days – he’s a good family man, and a great person. My guess is he’s an excellent local elected official for the people of Randolph.
But Mikie Sherrill has helped turn CD-11 district blue, and it’s going to stay that way in 2026.
Alex: I am getting my popcorn ready for the Democratic primary!
Their ever-expanding clown car is actually a good example of how one-party control hurts everybody – including Democratic office seekers and their own voters.
Democrats have the governor’s mansion, the legislature, two senators, nine congressional seats, a stranglehold on big county governments, in addition to a grip on the power centers that help buttress that control, such as the redistricting process and judicial appointments.
The pent up demand demonstrates the unfair apportionment of political power in our state. More competitive districts would produce a greater number of opportunities for the party to compete and naturally produce the best representation for the people. Fairer districts would still give the Democrats the advantage in a majority of races, so by the time a coveted position, like a congressional seat, became available, the party would have already allowed more candidates to be heard and even change hands in previous primaries in races for county office or state legislature, for example.
tl;dr – If Democrats drew fairer districts, they wouldn’t have to wait for people to die or go to prison to have the opportunity to run for something.
Bonnie Watson Coleman announced her retirement last week, and now a bunch of Democrats are positioning themselves to replace her. Who are the early favorites, and with no lines, what’s the best way for candidates to compete?
Alex: I’m not sure how much I have to offer on this one, but I will say that I respect the Congresswoman’s decision to retire with dignity and not treat the halls of power like an assisted living facility.
As for running without the line, that decision undoubtedly impacted Democrats, who control the vast majority of the power and money in this state, the most. For them, having the county line was like having a sledgehammer, whereas Republicans with understandably weaker positions in most of the counties have been able to host some fairly competitive primaries over the years with good old fashioned grassroots fundraising and voter contact. Their party establishment undeniably still has advantages, but there are now some good ways to undercut it, especially in a crowded field.
Dan: Bonnie Watson Coleman served her district, and her country, with distinction. I am sad to see her go, but thankful for her years of advocacy in Washington on behalf of New Jersey.
Once again, Democrats are seeing an amazing amount of enthusiasm in the CD-12 primary. While I’m happy to see so many quality candidates, I do personally hope the seat remains with a woman of color, given how much BWC’s representation has mattered over the years.
There’s no secret sauce to competing in these primaries – I hope these post-line scrums truly do allow the cream to rise to the top, and we put our best candidates forward in the general elections.
How are the 2025 election results a harbinger of what’s to come next year in the 7th district, where two-term Republican Tom Kean, Jr. is seeking re-election?
Dan: I’m a bit biased here – I’m working with Rebecca Bennett, who I think is one of the best Congressional candidates in the country this year. She’s a former Navy helicopter pilot (stop me if you’ve heard that before) and she is as hard-working, values-driven, and inspiring as anyone I’ve ever worked with. I don’t like going to DC, but I hope to be there in January of ’27 for her swearing in.
But one of the reasons Rebecca is resonating so well throughout the district is how fed up Tom Kean Jr’s constituents are with his inability to stand up for them. Instead of opposing Donald Trump’s efforts to kick thousands of CD7 families off of Medicaid, double healthcare premiums for tens of thousands more, hike taxes with a SALT cap, and shut down the Gateway Tunnel project, Tom Kean Jr. stands to the side and allows CD7 to get pummelled. Time and time again, he has put DC insider politics above what’s best for his district.
The residents of CD-7 know they need a fighter, and they know it isn’t Tom Kean, Jr. They’ll retire him next November.
Alex: One year ago, Democrats were in the same position in which Republicans now find themselves, so I think it would be unwise – truly – to say that the current environment holds for another year. There are some encouraging signs that the White House is turning its focus to more domestic items after some notable foreign policy wins. Plus, we know that Mikie Sherrill’s vague promise to “lower costs” and “freeze” electricity bills is unlikely to yield any real results, leading to frustration on the homefront. Even though the 7th district held on in what was a terrible year, I know Team Kean isn’t taking anything for granted.
