From Calculated Risk:
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak
It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!
In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.4% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 0.9% above the bubble peak.
People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $447,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important – this shows “real” prices.
The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
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The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).
In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 3.0% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.2% below the recent peak in 2022.
