JPMorganChase outlook: NJ businesses expect growth in 2026

The basics:

• JPMorganChase outlook shows strong growth expectations for NJ businesses in 2026
• 78% of NJ leaders expect revenue gains; 52% plan to increase hiring
• NJ leaders less optimistic about economy, but confident in their own firms
• Local innovation, partnerships, new product launches outpace national averages

JPMorganChase is out with its 2026 Business Leaders Outlook. The survey shows strong optimism among small and midsize business leaders in New Jersey and nationwide. Most expect revenue growth, hiring gains and new product launches in 2026 — despite ongoing concerns about inflation, tariffs and economic uncertainty.

The survey was conducted online in November 2025 among 2,644 U.S. small businesses (annual revenue $100,000–$20 million) and midsize businesses ($20 million–$500 million).

New Jersey business leaders are notably less optimistic about the local economy than their peers nationwide, but they remain bullish on their own growth prospects.

Just 32% of New Jersey leaders report optimism about the local economy, compared with 44% nationally. Still, confidence in business performance is strong: 78% expect revenue or sales to increase in 2026, and 52% plan to increase headcount, which is higher than the national average of 48%.

New products, more growth

Innovation and expansion feature prominently in New Jersey’s outlook. Seventy percent of leaders plan to introduce new products or services in 2026, well above the national figure of 58%; while 38% expect to expand into new domestic markets. Strategic collaboration is also a priority, with 60% considering partnerships or investments – versus 49% nationwide.

On technology, New Jersey leaders appear less concerned about workforce disruption from AI. Two-thirds (66%) say AI will have no impact on employee headcount in 2026, and just 8% cite AI adoption as a top challenge, which is less than half the national rate (18%). Tariffs, however, loom large, ranking as the No. 2 challenge facing Garden State businesses.

Nationally, business leaders enter 2026 with cautious optimism.

Key findings among middle market leaders include:

• 71% are optimistic about their company’s prospects, up significantly from mid-2025 (58%) and approaching early-2025 levels (75%)
• 73% project increased revenue in 2026, and 48% expect to increase headcount
• Just 39% are optimistic about the national economy, though leaders are bullish on their own businesses
• Economic uncertainty, revenue growth pressures, tariffs and labor costs top the list of challenges
• Middle market firms are prioritizing new products or services (58%), expansion into new domestic or international markets (53%), strategic partnerships or investments (49%) and/or mergers and acquisitions (39%)

“There’s a real sense of momentum across the middle market as business leader prepare to set ambitious growth plans in motion,” said Melissa Smith, co-head of commercial banking, J.P. Morgan. “Companies are thinking creatively about how to position themselves for the future as they navigate complex macroeconomic factors.”

Key findings among small business leaders include:

• 74% are optimistic about their company’s outlook for 2026 and 60% feel more positive about their own business now than at any point in the past five years
• 76% expect revenue growth and 76% anticipate higher profits, continuing a multiyear trend of resilience in this area
• 53% plan to increase headcount
• Inflation, cost pressures and tariffs remain the leading challenges
• In response to cost pressures, owners are building cash reserves (47%), renegotiating supplier terms (36%), and ramping up investments in marketing and technology, such as AI
• AI adoption accelerated in 2025, with 59% saying AI will be essential to competitiveness within three years
• Only 27% expect a recession in 2026, down sharply from mid-2025 (39%)

“Small business owners are operating with a mix of optimism and pragmatism,” said Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business. “They’re making smart investments and doubling down on innovation, setting the pace for Main Street in the year ahead while adapting to shifting market dynamics.”

The full middle market outlook is available here. The small business outlook can be found here.