By Samuel Prescott
The war in Iran signals (yet another) very harrowing time for America, riddled with multiple complexities.
First, the merits. It seems certain that absent regime change, Iran will cross the nuclear threshold as soon as possible. Why? Think North Korea. We (and Iran) know that possessing a nuclear weapon is the only true guarantee of that regime’s survival. Will an air-only campaign displace the current regime? That seems unlikely. It didn’t work in the first Gulf War, the Balkans, Lebanon, or Gaza. And in Iran, the Islamic Revolution is deeply entrenched. But our air campaign at least offers a possibility of achieving this critical goal.
Then there is what happens next, which is also quite concerning.
Start with the profound (and very unwelcome) incoherence already playing out at the top. Not by the military. They seem to be performing well. It is Hegseth, plus Rubio, and – of course – Trump. According to Hegseth, we are not there to effectuate regime change; even though that is the only real way to address the existential threat of a nuclear Iran. According to Trump, regime change is why we are attacking, but it also isn’t – depending on the day. Rubio stated that we attacked to pre-empt Iranian retaliation for an imminent Israeli strike. Until Trump disagreed, requiring a shift. Rubio now tells us the press is at fault; that he didn’t mean what he actually said.
Most of us understand that having a plan greatly increases the likelihood of accomplishing it. Which is why this dissonance, exacerbated by the Administration’s dismemberment of the Pentagon Press Corps last October, is alarming.
There is also the magnitude of the threat we now face. Maybe – as Trump apparently believes – Iran (and indeed, the entire world) fits squarely within the only thing he really seems to know; the tawdry, quasi-corrupt binary world of Manhattan real estate development, characterized by bluffs, bullying, and capitulations. But maybe not. Maybe what is left of Iran’s brutal leadership has concluded – after being twice attacked while twice actively negotiating with us – that its best chance of survival is to outlast Trump by inflicting pain. That is, to activate sleeper cells and other terror capabilities it has almost certainly placed around the globe – including here – for this very day. Dirty bomb(s), biologics, cyberattacks on key infrastructure, lone wolf mass shootings, or worse. Who can say? Obviously, we all hope that these often-threatened attacks are as empty as Iran’s demonstrated inability to defend its airspace. And (God willing) that may be the case. But hope is not a strategy, particularly after almost 4 years of Biden’s open, uncontrolled border.
Then there are those tasked by Trump with protecting us, which may be the most concerning of all. Foremost among them is Kash Patel – our FBI Director – who seems to spend a lot of his time (and our money) protecting his girlfriend, helping our hockey players celebrate their Olympic victory, and stripping away decades of hard won investigative and counterintelligence experience from the FBI to demonstrate fealty to Trump. One loyalty requirement is you must agree that the 2020 election (but not the 2024 one) was stolen. Another is that you were not assigned to play any role in investigating Trump. Otherwise, you are gone. Indeed, just days before launching Operation Epic Fury, Patel “fired a dozen agents and staff members from a counterintelligence unit tasked with monitoring threats from Iran . . . for a simple reason: Each was involved in the investigation of President Donald Trump’s alleged retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate.” Resulting in a concern inside “the Justice Department and FBI that counterterrorism and intelligence investigations in the wake of the military operation in Iran could be hampered by a mass exodus of national security experts.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ar-AA1Xr1U3.
A close second to Patel is our Attorney General – Pam Bondi – who seems laser focused on dismembering her agency, the Department of Justice, based on the same fealty test. Accompanied by what appears to be a systematic misuse of criminal prosecutions to punish or intimidate Trump’s perceived enemies. Bondi’s dilution of DOJ’s expertise and distortion of its mission is likely why grand juries are now rejecting an unprecedented number of attempted prosecutions as baseless. As for Iran? “DOJ teams dedicated to monitoring . . . foreign threats have been decimated by waves of firings and resignations since the beginning of the Trump administration,” many “of the offices in the DOJ’s National Security Division have lost at least half of their employees” and, “Bondi demoted the National Security Division’s acting head because she saw a portrait of former President Joe Biden was still hanging in the division’s front office.” Leaving many of those who remain “’completely gutted and undermined.’” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ar-AA1Xr1U3.
Followed by Tulsi Gabbard – our Director of National Intelligence – who may be the hollowest cabinet member in US history. Gabbard seems to only appear when scurrying to curry Trump’s favor. Such as her unexplained presence during the seizure of 2020 (yes, 2020 again) voting records in Georgia under a search warrant that (i) “originated from a U.S. Attorney in Missouri, unusually cutting out the U.S. Attorney for the relevant jurisdiction [in Georgia],” (ii) after “the FBI special agent in charge of the Atlanta field office was reportedly forced out days before the search . . . [who had] refused to participate,” and was based on (iii) “a referral by White House lawyer Kurt Olsen, a court-sanctioned election denier who worked to overturn the 2020 election results on President Trump’s behalf.” https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/release/whitehouse-blumenthal-call-for-investigation-into-fbis-suspicious-seizure-of-election-records-in-fulton-county/
Next is Kristi Noem, who headed up the Department of Homeland Security until she didn’t. Noem was not just the face of ICE. She was (and her successor is) also responsible for protecting us against cyberattacks. Where is DHS on this core mission? Noem cut a key cybersecurity agency under her command by more than a third and “axed funding” for election security. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/23/kristi-noem-cybersecurity-strategy-concerns-cisa-00619108. By all appearances, the new interim DHS head is even worse.
Leaving the captain of this dismal team – Donald Trump. Rather than recite a discouragingly familiar litany of critiques or speculate about why our NATO allies might be hesitant to support us in Iran after Trump threatened to seize Greenland from NATO member Denmark, consider instead what a class of young adults think. After all, their future is also being determined here.
My touchpoint with this class is that they are my students. Several were vaguely aware of the tariffs. Others, not at all. So we took a 30,000 feet look at what tariffs are and the statutory arguments for and against them. We also looked at the Supreme Court’s recent 6-3 decision and the President’s response to it. In that decision, Chief Justice Roberts characterized Trump as seeking “the independent power to impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time.” The Court denied him that power. Which, according to Trump, was a “disgrace” driven by unnamed “foreign interests” that the six Justices in the majority (and their families) should be “ashamed” of.
After reviewing all of this, the class pondered two questions. One was whether Trump’s reaction to the Supreme Court’s decision had weakened the independence of the judiciary. The other was whether it had weakened the Presidency. Their answer to both questions was unanimous. It was “yes.”
Too much should not be made of this. Or too little. One classroom is obviously not a statistically valid sample. At the same time, this is not an ivy league school and the students in my class are not the sons and daughters of the economic elite. They come from middle-class families. At least half work when they are not studying. Most are not minorities. And, from the many questions I have asked them on many topics, and the many answers they have not given, I can see the impact of social media algorithms. When it comes to current events, our nation’s history, and critical thinking skills they are (with a few exceptions) veritable whiteboards who often do not have the context needed to accurately assess complex policy issues.
Our in-class discussion was straightforward. There was no conclusion stated first, followed by a hunt for information to support it. Simply putting facts and Trump’s reaction to them in one conversation led this group to the same shared conclusion. Our President is not credible.
That was tariffs. What about Trump’s incoherence on Iran? Just saw Trump insist that he demands “unconditional surrender.” Only days earlier, he offered Iranians who have murdered tens of thousands of their fellow citizens “total immunity” if they surrendered. Immunity itself being, of course a condition that was itself proposed, we may assume, without anyone from Trump’s team asking a single family member of any murdered Iranian whether they approved of him doing so. Coupled with the White House’s most recent decision to stop DHS and the FBI from warning state and local law enforcement about elevated domestic terror threats. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15622933/White-House-blocks-warning-rising-threat-linked-Iran-war.html. To protect us, or to protect Trump’s polling numbers?
For most of our country’s history cabinet members have resigned over policy disagreements. I don’t know if that should happen here. But it is inconceivable that any of Trump’s picks would ever do so over any issue for any reason. That unhappy circumstance speaks volumes about how well-suited they are to manage this chaotic reality.
Landing us in a very jagged place. A 79-year-old man – who alone determines our foreign policy through late night tweets – is not trusted by most Americans. Our attack on Iran will be responded to violently by murderers. And Trump’s cabinet is riddled with mediocrities that he picked to assure that he can shine.
American lives – meaning our lives – are now on the firing line. For that reason, regardless of party we all want Trump and his cabinet to succeed. We all want them to meet this perilous moment. Will they? Can they?
Skills certainly matter, but luck often matters more. Better keep your fingers crossed.
