The basics:
- DraftKings reports growing betting interest as Academy Awards approach March 15
- Best picture, actor, actress director draw most wagers
- Films with New Jersey ties, including Michael B. Jordan, ‘Marty Supreme’, earn multiple nominations
- Most betting activity expect night before or day of Oscars ceremony
With the Academy Awards set for March 15, anticipation is building across Hollywood. And increasingly in the betting markets, as fans try to predict which films and performances will take home the industry’s top honors.
As wagering on major entertainment events continues to grow, sportsbooks are expanding their offerings around awards shows, giving audiences another way to engage with one of the biggest nights in film.
At DraftKings, betting interest mirrors the buzz surrounding the ceremony’s biggest races, according to Johnny Avello. NJBIZ recently spoke to the DraftKings director of race and sportsbook operations.
“There’s no doubt it’s the picture, the actor, actress, the supporting actor, actress and director,” Avello told NJBIZ. “That’s where you’re going to see most of the money.
“But we have all of the categories up – visual effects, production design, the makeup and styling.”
Avello noted that in some of the deeper categories, where there’s an overwhelming favorite, bettors will take a flyer on a heavy underdog for a bigger payout.
Local favorite
The betting markets also reflect the prominence of several films with New Jersey ties.
Best Picture nominee “Marty Supreme” filmed across the state in 2024 in locations including Paterson, Elizabeth and the Meadowlands. “One Battle After Another” currently leads the odds at around –400 in that race, followed by “Sinners” at +275.
All betting odds in this story are via DraftKings as of March 12.
“Marty Supreme” trails the favorites but remains part of a strong Oscar showing for productions that shot in New Jersey. Along with “Song Sung Blue,” the two films earned a combined 10 nominations, highlighting the state’s growing role as a production hub along with generating millions in local spending and thousands of jobs during filming.
Some categories appear close to settled heading into the ceremony. In best director, Paul Thomas Anderson — nominated for “One Battle After Another” — is a dominant favorite (-2500) after a strong run through awards season. “To me that’s locked in,” Avello said. “I just can’t see anybody beating Paul Thomas Anderson. That would be a major upset.” In that category, the next closest contender is Ryan Coogler for “Sinners” (+800).
Watch the Oscar nomination announcements here:
And the Oscar goes to …
Other races remain more competitive. In best actor, Michael B. Jordan — a Newark native — currently holds a narrow edge for “Sinners” (-185), followed closely by Timothée Chalamet for “Marty Supreme” (+160). The category also includes a New Jersey connection in Ethan Hawke (+3000), who has West Windsor roots. He earned a nomination for “Blue Moon,” while the film’s screenplay nominee, Robert Kaplow, is a former Westfield resident.
“Timothée Chalamet was coasting along winning everything, and then all of a sudden Michael B. Jordan wins the SAG Award,” Avello said. “So things changed a little bit in that category.”
Elsewhere, the best actress race appears far less uncertain, with Jessie Buckley heavily favored for “Hamnet” (-3500). Supporting categories remain more fluid, with Sean Penn (-350) leading best supporting actor and Amy Madigan (-140) narrowly ahead in best supporting actress.
Best Picture nominee “Marty Supreme” filmed across the state in 2024. Official trailer courtesy of A24:
Even with several apparent frontrunners in the betting markets, Avello said Oscar night rarely goes exactly as expected.
“There’s always a surprise,” he said. “So, the movie itself could be a surprise. I think in the Actor – there could be a surprise.”
Avello said that out of the six main categories, he believes two are pretty solid and locked in.
“The rest, there’ll be an upset somewhere along the line here,” said Avello.
Place your bets
While the lines have been posted for a bit – first as futures last year – and then lines updating as nominations came out and awards season kicked off, Avello said that most of the action will come in the night before or day of.
Avello noted that the lines close when the show begins at 7 p.m. ET. The Academy Awards take place live from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles and will air on ABC.
“So, don’t wait till your category comes up to bet it – make sure you bet it prior to the show kicking off that night,” said Avello. He said that site is clear and self-explanatory. “It’s got every category – and it’s got what the price is for everyone in that category.”
Avello said DraftKings is seeing more and more interest in betting on these types of entertainment events — beyond just sports.
“We consider ourselves an entertainment company, so we’re not only doing Oscars these days. We’re doing Grammy and Emmys and Tonys,” he explained. “The Oscars itself is an exciting moment for us. It’s one of the biggest nights in entertainment. And it just creates an opportunity, as some of the other things we put up, for our expanded audience to engage with our platform and just a major cultural event.
We consider ourselves an entertainment company, so we’re not only doing Oscars these days. We’re doing Grammy and Emmys and Tonys.
— Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations, DraftKings
“For us, it’s a big deal. And anything we put up is a big deal. This is our seventh year putting these up. Some of the other stuff like the Emmys and Grammys are a little bit newer. But we just think it’s fun for us – it’s fun for the general public. And gives our customers just another avenue to have fun for the night, watch a show, and make some bets.”
If the betting markets are any indication, viewers can expect plenty of drama, a few surprises, and perhaps some winning picks along the way.
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