After a seven-year hiatus from the world of New Jersey polling, the Quinnipiac University Poll is back, and – much like almost every other pollster talking to New Jersey voters this year – it finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) with a modest lead in the race for governor.
According to the poll, which was conducted from September 11-15 with a sample size of 1,238 likely voters, Sherrill leads former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R-Somerville) by a margin of eight points, 49% to 41%.
Sherrill, who’s represented North Jersey’s 11th congressional district since 2019, is also viewed more favorably by the state’s voters than her opponent. 40% of voters view her favorably and 29% view her unfavorably, while Ciattarelli – who remains widely known from his prior near-miss run for the governorship in 2021 – has a favorability ratio of 40%-39%.
But in a slightly more foreboding result for Sherrill, Ciattarelli has a clear enthusiasm edge among his own voters, which could matter in an off-year election with unpredictable turnout: 48% of Ciattarelli voters said they’re “very enthusiastic” to support him, while 37% of Sherrill voters said the same.
The man that both are trying to succeed, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, posts lukewarm job approval ratings of 48%-44%, and voters are evenly divided at 49%-49% about whether they’re satisfied with how things are going in New Jersey.
That’s far better, though, than President Donald Trump, who has an approval rating of 41%-55% just a year after unexpectedly coming closer to carrying New Jersey than any Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush. Still, 47% of voters said they’d like the next governor to focus on working with Trump, while 50% said they’d like to see them stand up to the president.
Other recent polls have also found Sherrill with a lead: 45%-37% in a mid-July Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, 44%-35% in an early August Rutgers-Eagleton poll, and 47%-45% in an early September poll from the GOP polling firm National Research Inc. No poll has yet been publicly publicly released that finds Ciattarelli leading.
Despite Sherrill’s persistent polling advantage, though, both parties still view the race as competitive. Sherrill and Ciattarelli, who will meet for their first of two debates this Sunday, have both been aided by national groups eager to see a win in New Jersey, including an enormous $23 million investment from national Democrats on Sherrill’s behalf.
Quinnipiac University, which is based in Connecticut, was once New Jersey’s gold-standard pollster, releasing regular polls of New Jersey’s major statewide elections alongside surveys of how voters felt about their state leaders, major policy issues, and top news stories like Bridgegate and Hurricane Sandy.
After the 2018 election, however, the pollster pulled out of the Garden State, with the exception of one poll in 2020 focused on Covid in the New York tri-state area. It was largely supplanted by Monmouth University as New Jersey’s gold-standard pollster, but Monmouth announced earlier this year that it would shutter its polling institute.
Quinnipiac’s final poll of the 2018 U.S. Senate race between Senator Bob Menendez and Republican challenger Bob Hugin wasn’t far off the mark: the poll put Menendez up by a 55% to 40% margin, and he ended up winning 54% to 43%.
The pollster also essentially nailed the 2017 governor’s race, giving now-Gov. Phil Murphy a 53%-41% lead over then-Lieutenant Gov. Kim Guadagno shortly before Murphy prevailed 56%-42%. Quinnipiac’s earlier polls of the same race, though, were overly pro-Murphy; its mid-September poll, the equivalent of today’s poll testing Sherrill and Ciattarelli, put Murphy up 58%-33%.
According to today’s poll, the issue that’s more top-of-mind than any other is taxes, with 30% of voters saying it’s the most important issue when it comes to deciding who to vote for. Behind taxes were ethics in government (14%), inflation (9%), health care (9%), immigration (8%), schools (6%), affordable housing (6%), crime (5%), electricity costs (4%), mass transit (1%), and unemployment (1%).
Sherrill is evidently vulnerable on two of those issues: a 46%-40% plurality of voters believe Ciattarelli would do a better job than Sherrill at handling property taxes, while Sherrill edges out Ciattarelli 42%-40% on the issue of electricity costs, which both candidates have made centerpieces of their campaigns.
On a personal level, though, the poll found Sherrill to be far better liked than Ciattarelli. Voters were far more likely to say that the congresswoman cares about people like them (50%-35% for Sherrill, 44%-43% for Ciattarelli); has good leadership skills (52%-26% for Sherrill, 44%-35% for Ciattarelli); and is honest (49%-24% for Sherrill, 38%-37% for Ciattarelli).
“With just under seven weeks to go, the race for the Trenton State House leans Sherrill’s way as Ciattarelli lags on three key character issues: honesty, empathy and leadership,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a release accompanying the poll.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted from September 11-15 with a sample size of 1,238 likely general election voters and a margin of error of /- 3.9%.
