New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
With the federal government now shut down, voters are watching closely to see who takes responsibility — Congress, the White House, or both. In your view, what’s driving the breakdown in Washington, and how might this shutdown affect New Jersey families and the race for governor here at home?”
Dan Bryan: The breakdown in Washington is simple: GOP-controlled Congress under President Trump is an NPC (to use a favorite term of the bro-right) that cannot operate independently of the Administration. So they’re now plunging our country in chaos because they can’t negotiate 60 votes, which is the job of the Senate Majority Leader, not the minority.
Do I think this will be a driving factor in the gubernatorial race? No, but I think it genuinely can affect it the deeper it goes. If Democrats can successfully get their message out about ACA cuts and the coming premium increases (a big if), this can prove more dangerous to Republican candidates than most shutdowns.
And the deeper it goes, the more it will affect the Republicans’ chances of holding the House in next year’s midterms.
Alex Wilkes: Since Dan is taking the time to study his fellow humans on the bro-right, I will meet him halfway in acknowledging that we might really all be living in a simulation. I guess what I really want to know is why Democrats seem so intent on removing their own pool ladders?
First, do I think that the back-and-forth in Congress animates anyone in our election here in New Jersey who wasn’t already on a side? I don’t. The Democrats weakly tried it just recently here with the One Big Beautiful Bill, and it didn’t really land. It also inevitably becomes a conversation about the chief occupant of the White House whose policies and presence, I think, Democrats are finding to be a trickier needle to thread than they would like to admit this year.
Second, shutdown politics never seem to look good on the party who’s throwing the tantrum. Believe me, in the Obama nadir of 2013, all Republicans learned that lesson the hard way during the “defund Obamacare” shutdown (a fundraising ploy, not a strategy). President Trump even chided his fellow Republicans during the 2015-2016 primary debates for it. The Donald knows good tv, and for the Democrats this time, it ain’t rejecting a clean CR for funding healthcare for illegal aliens (yes, that is true).
Finally, my kingdom for a budget. This is on both parties. Everyone is growing weary of the artificial crises created out of Washington’s own cynicism.
At a PIX 11 candidate forum attended by both candidates separately on Friday evening, Mikie Sherrill refused to release her own records dealing with the U.S. Naval Academy cheating scandal and instead deflected the blame to Jack Ciattarelli. Is that strategy working for her?
Alex: I don’t know of one Republican at, you know, our weekly meetings in secret lairs, who questions Mikie Sherrill’s patriotism or the honorable decision she made in choosing to serve in our military.
But it is possible to hold that belief while also acknowledging that a person’s military record – particularly when he or she has made it the centerpiece of the campaign – is something that can be fairly evaluated by voters.
The real reason you’re seeing the outrage machine on full display about this is because somewhere after the drunken lustre of the League of Municipalities had worn off last year, the 3 or 4 guys who got into a room and decided to make Mikie a governor (mostly on the basis of her supposedly ironclad bio) started to realize that she wasn’t very good outside the confines of a safe congressional district. The “bio” is all they have left out of a pretty unremarkable campaign.
Being implicated in a cheating scandal at one of America’s premier institutions is eye-catching, particularly for undecided voters who have been fed nothing but a steady diet of helicopters from this campaign in response to serious policy concerns.
The louder Democrats are yelling, the more you know you’re pressing on something that hurts.
Dan: The premise of this argument is absurd, of course, but there is an important discussion buried in here.
Mikie Sherrill served her country in the military for almost a decade, putting her life on the line to protect us and our freedoms. Jack Ciattarelli, who has never served a day in the military, does not get to make unfounded allegations against Mikie and then demand she prove a negative by releasing all of her military records. If I made an unfounded allegations that Jack had a meth lab in his basement, he shouldn’t be forced to give the media a house tour to clear his name.
But let’s look at the real reason Ciattarelli and his team are trying to swiftboat Mikie, denigrating her service to her country along the way: Democratic veterans outperform nonveterans by a stunning 5.83 percentage points. This is why we’re seeing the Democratic party nominate candidates like Sherrill, Spanberger, Pat Ryan, Mark Kelly, and Tammy Duckworth, to name just a few. Embracing veteran candidates is a big part of the party’s road back to relevance: it can literally be the difference between winning and losing close races, all other things being equal. And Republicans like Ciattarelli know that.
So giving in here is not only bad politics, it’s a bad precedent. We can’t let Republicans decide whose service to their country is valid and whose isn’t, whose service must be litigated and whose doesn’t.
She should reject this as the bullshit it is, and move forward.
We’ve now seen four cycles of lieutenant governor debates that have included a robust discussion of issues and strong performances, but have received little attention and have not been especially consequential to the election’s outcome. Still, it’s a chance for interested voters to see who is being placed a heartbeat away from the governorship. Should the LG debate continue, or would the voters be better served by a third gubernatorial debate?
Dan: I’ll be honest: until last week, I never thought LG debates were worth the effort. Boy, was I wrong!
Sheriff Gannon committed the ultimate sin in Republican politics: he told the truth. Direct quote: “Taxes are on the table, but I’d be careful of millionaire taxes. They’re employing us.”
This is something, of course, that we all know: the Republican party couldn’t care less about the working class in this country. They put millionaires and billionaires on a pedestal, and protect them at the cost of working families all the time. But they never just come out and say it like this! I give Sheriff Gannon points for honesty. My guess is they keep him far away from cameras for the next month, much to the chagrin of DGA trackers.
Let’s also remember this pesky little fact: when Governor Murphy pushed for a millionaires tax, critics said it would drive wealth out of the state. The opposite, of course, proved true: New Jersey’s millionaires more than doubled in the years following the enactment of the millionaires tax, according to the Division of Taxation. So not only was it good politics, it was good government.
In general, I think LG debates may be boring, but they’re necessary. These two may lead the state one day, whether because of a career move or a tragedy. And voters need to see that they’re ready for prime time.
Alex: For once, as voters and taxpayers, I think we should get it all. Let’s do 3 gubernatorial debates and a lieutenant governor debate. Is that really so much to ask for in exchange for millions of dollars of public financing? We have so few people who actually cover the news and newsmakers in this state (present company excluded) that we deserve to hear challenging questions be asked of the leaders who execute the laws that most directly every day.
Alex, can you explain how Jack Ciattarelli won the week. And Dan, can you spin how Mikie Sherrill won it?
Alex: Jack met the match first against a sitting congresswoman, and he’s scored important endorsements from Democratic leaders. Meanwhile, the noise continues to grow about Mikie’s record (both at the Naval Academy and absenteeism in Congress), along with concern from Democrats that she still isn’t connecting with Black and Latino voters in October. Enthusiasm gap, anyone?
Dan: This one is pretty easy: her LG candidate didn’t create an all-time political gaffe at his debate. The eight-point deficit in the Fox News poll certainly didn’t help him either
Dan, the Mets have disappointed you again. You’ve told me that Steve Cohen keeps putting the best teams on the field and creating the best fan experience in baseball, but the Mets, during Governor Murphy’s eight years in office, have not done well. Is it possible that Chris Christie has cursed your team? Should the Mets dump him the way New Jersey has?
Dan: I don’t blame Governor Christie one bit. If I was offered a spot on the Mets Board of Directors, I would take it in a heartbeat. No amount of public scorn or scrutiny would bother me in the least. But unlike Christie, I would wear out my welcome in a matter of months, sending in lineup suggestions daily and finding my way down to the dugout to give the guys tips. I like to think of myself as rational and practical in real life – those descriptors do not apply to my sports fandoms.
But there is something we should consider: Christie has had eight years on the Mets Board of Directors, and he hasn’t gotten the job done. I think, just like in 2017, we need a change of pace. And just like in 2017, I know a guy that’s about to be available to come in and build a Stronger and Fairer Mets organization, one that finally delivers on its promises. Let’s make it happen, Uncle Steve!! Don’t hold the Boston thing against him!
Here’s my sincere answer that you didn’t ask for: Steve Cohen seems to genuinely be doing his best to create a winning culture in Queens. He’s bringing in the right talent on the field and in the front office. It just hasn’t worked yet.
But that doesn’t mean they aren’t on the right path: their farm system used to be the dregs of the league, and they’re now ranked #1 in all of baseball. Yes, their pitching is terrible, but the prospects they brought up late in the season look promising. And the lineup is good enough to win a World Series, if they keep the core together (reminder: SIGN ALONSO).
Chris Christie and I have many personal differences, but I’d like to think we put them aside as soon as we cross the Triboro Bridge. If the Mets really do win the World Series one day, I’ll happily watch him raise the trophy from my view in the cheap seats.
Alex: You know, this week, I might actually feel Dan’s pain considering that the ghost of Joe Biden came to haunt my Phillies at the Bank for a Game 2 loss on Monday. I am still praying for a Red October, but regardless, I am satisfied in knowing that my kids, who are growing up about 20 miles from Citi Field, happily tote their Phanatic and Phillies hats around the house no matter the season.
