The basics:
- FDU poll shows Sherrill leads Ciattarelli as NJ undecided voters drop to 3%
- Partisan support solid: 93% of Democrats back Sherrill, 96% of Republicans support Ciattarelli
- Favorability ratings show Sherrill viewed as moderate-liberal, Ciattarelli as strongly conservative
- Some policies, like freezing energy bills, gain cross-party support
Fairleigh Dickinson University is out with a new poll Friday on the New Jersey gubernatorial race. The latest shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a 7-point lead (52-45) over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
The survey of 814 likely New Jersey voters took place Oct. 9-15 (margin of error of +/- 3.4%).
There are a number of notable findings in the poll, including that just 3% of likely voters are still undecided – a sharp dip from FDU’s July poll that had 16% undecided. The July poll also had Sherrill up 8% (45-37).
The Oct. 17 results also show Democrats and Republicans lining up behind their candidates, with 93% of Democrats supporting Sherrill (up 6 point from July); and 96% of Republicans backing Ciattarelli (up 10 points from July).
According to plan
Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at FDU and executive director of the FDU Poll, said so far, this race is going exactly as expected.
Catch up
NJBIZ was on hand for both gubernatorial debates. Get the wrap-up:
“Undecided voters have almost all made up their minds, and partisans have put aside any misgivings and lined up behind their candidates,” said Cassino.
Respondents rated both candidates on two 1-to-10 scales:
- Favorability 1 – intensely dislike; 10 – intensely like
- Sherrill 5.5
- Democrats 8.0
- Republicans 2.6
- Independents 4.9
- Ciattarelli 4.6
- Republicans 8.0
- Democrats 2.0
- Independents 4.7
- Sherrill 5.5
- Ideology 1 – very conservative; 10 – very liberal
- Sherrill 7.6
- Republicans 8.6
- Democrats 6.8
- Ciattarelli 2.6
- Democrats 2.3
- Republicans 2.8
- Sherrill 7.6
“Generally, people think their opponent is way more extreme than their own candidate is, but that’s just not happening here,” said Cassino. “Democrats think Sherrill is much more moderate than Republicans do, but basically everyone agrees that Ciattarelli is very conservative, even members of his own party.”
Respondents were also asked to indicate whether they liked or disliked specific personal traits and policy positions for each candidate.
Candidate traits
- Ciattarelli
- Lifelong N.J. resident +60%
- Father of four +57% (and +39% among Democrats)
- Sherrill
- Mother of four +58%
- Navy helicopter pilot +53%
Policy proposals
- Ciattarelli
- Opposing offshore wind: +73% among Republicans; negative among independents and Democrats (−7% overall)
- State-level DOGE: +90% Republicans +18% independents −77% Democrats
- Trump-era tariffs: −18% overall −26% among independents
- Sherrill
- Freezing energy bills: +39% overall −17% among Republicans
- Enshrining abortion rights: +22% overall +15% among independents
- Opposing Trump administration programs: +17% overall +28% among independents
“There are limits to partisanship: voters like the biographies of both of these candidates,” Cassino said. “While there’s not much agreement on policies, there are some proposals, like rooting out waste and fraud, or freezing energy bills, that have some support across the political spectrum.”
This latest poll is in line with others this week as the race heads into the final stretch: Quinnipiac reported it at 50-44 in favor of Sherrill; and Fox News at 50-45 for Sherrill.
Taken all together, the results show a tight race with the bases further aligned and fewer undecided voters remaining – making these final days and weeks on the trail critical to get the message out to the shrinking pool of persuadable independents; and, of course, making turnout on Election Day – in this off-cycle race – as crucial as ever.
NJBIZ will have a further analysis of the race coming in its Oct. 20, 2025, issue.
The full FDU poll results are available here.
