Listen to this articleThe basics:
- New Jersey voters choose between Sherrill, Ciattarelli Nov. 4
- Polls show a tight race heading into Election Day
- National figures Obama and Trump weigh in on NJ race
- Turnout among independents seen as key to the outcome
It’s Election Day and the eyes of the nation are on the great Garden State.
For months, Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill have been on the trail in a hard-fought race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat.
Sherrill has led throughout in public polling, but those results have shown a tightening race, including some that have it essentially as a dead heat inside the margin of error, which NJBIZ has reported on.
Some of the recent results heading into Election Day have included:
- Atlas Intel Sherrill up one
- Fox News Sherrill up seven
- Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX 11 Sherrill up two
- Suffolk University Sherrill up four
- RealClearPolitics poll average Sherrill at 48.9%; Ciattarelli at 45.6%
This being an off-year election (along with Virginia), between the presidential and mid-terms, draws national attention – as political observers look for any bellwether and trends heading into next year’s elections.
In addition to the governorship, this year, all 80 Assembly seats are up in this state – along with a slew of key local races – that has more than 850,000 registered Democrats versus Republicans.
1.3M votes cast
There are number of key issues at the center of this race.
Since it’s New Jersey, of course, those include property taxes and affordability, as well as high utility costs (which became a top issue on the trail), school funding, immigration, the government shutdown and the threat of Gateway Program termination, and much more.
And there are two competing viewpoints that will collide: those looking for change from long-standing Democrat rule in Trenton and eight years of the Murphy administration versus those looking to voice their opposition against the Trump administration in Washington.
Early in-person voting and vote by mail have been robust, with 1.3 million voters already participating. Those figures show 675,319 Democratic ballots (50.6%) versus 385,767 Republican ballots (28.9%) – along with 273,486 unaffiliated ballots (20.5%). That gives the Dems an advantage of just under 290,000 likely votes heading into Tuesday.
But – as always in New Jersey – those unaffiliated and independent ballots will be vital to determining the state’s next governor — particularly in a race that appears to be this close.
Leading political experts stress this will be a turnout election. Analysts and pollsters have studied independents, looking for any tells about how they will break in this race.
Bus(y) tour
Over this home stretch, the candidates as well as their campaigns and surrogates barnstormed the state trying to rally every last vote.
The Sherrill campaign launched a 21-county “Driving Down Costs” bus tour. The trip included a slew of visits by her running mate Dale Caldwell, president of Centenary University, to small businesses in parts of North and South Jersey, making more than 15 stops.
“As an entrepreneur myself, I know exactly how hard it is to run a small business in New Jersey. That’s why as we close out this race, I criss-crossed the state to ensure all voters know exactly how Mikie and I will help our cherished local businesses. I met entrepreneurs who — regardless of party or partisanship — are drowning under red tape and bureaucratic nightmares from Trenton,” Caldwell told NJBIZ. “That’s why Mikie and I will make it easier to start and grow a business, drive down costs and cut red tape.
“But it’s not just high costs — too often our minority-owned businesses are left out of state contracts and opportunities for growth that comes with them. That’s why we are also going to empower our Business Action Center to better help small businesses with marketing and mentorship and make them more competitive.
“This November, Mikie and I are the only candidates with a plan to help our local economies thrive,” Caldwell said.
November surprise
The Ciattarelli campaign made stops across the state on its road trip, the “Road to Change Bus Tour.”
On Election Day eve, Ciattarelli made three stops, including a memorable one at Murph’s Tavern in Totowa. There, he got the surprise of a lifetime as his son Jake returned from service in Kuwait to join his father for the last leg of this race.
“What a crowd and what a surprise at Murph’s Tavern in Totowa today! The energy was absolutely unbeatable – you can feel it everywhere we go,” Ciattarelli wrote on social media. “New Jersey is ready for change, and we’re ready for a major victory tomorrow. Let’s bring it home – be sure to get out and VOTE!”
He closed out Monday with rallies at Kelly’s Tavern in Neptune City and finally in his hometown of Raritan.
Sherrill held rallies in Morristown, Union City and Montclair — where she resides.
“Morris County believed in me from the very beginning,” Sherrill wrote on social media. “It means the world be closing out the campaign with the same crew who has been by my side every step of the way.”
Presidential pull
The final days of the race also featured a number of notable politicians from the national scene, drawing attention and even appearing on the trail, including U.S. representatives, senators, governors – and presidents.
Former President Barack Obama spoke at a Saturday night rally in Newark for Sherrill.
“You have a candidate worth being excited about,” said Obama. “You’ve got a future governor to be excited about in Mikie Sherrill.”
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump held a tele-rally for Ciattarelli Monday night, along with U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-2nd District.
“This is the biggest election,” said Trump. “The entire country is watching New Jersey. Vote for Jack Ciattarelli. He’s a fantastic guy. He’s a winner. He loves the state. He has given up so much to do this.”
Another example of the national attention here in Jersey: Fox News Channel Host Sean Hannity hosted a special Oct. 30 town hall edition of his show, “Hannity,” live from Crystal Point Yacht Club in Point Pleasant. Hannity said a Ciattarelli win in this usually blue state would be a political earthquake.
Closing statements
Everything has been said, the attack ads have run, the campaign stops and rallies have taken place. Now, it’s time for New Jersey voters to give their verdict.
Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Nov. 4.
Full details on voting can be found here.
The candidates issued closing messages in front of their supporters – making a final pitch to voters before polls open.
“We got to finish strong. Championship teams finish strong and deliver championships,” said Ciattarelli, urging those who have not voted to make sure they vote – and to encourage others to do so as well. He noted that he will continue his work over the next 24 hours. “You’re going to hear me say this is the most important election of our lifetime. I think every election is equally important for different reasons. But I will say this, the future of our state hangs in the balance.
“We need a change. So, tell people what’s at stake. If you come across people who aren’t thinking about voting, get them to vote. We can win this race – but we got to turn it out. So, I’m going to do my part. You do your part. Let’s get this done.”
Get out the vote
“We’re coming to an end, guys. If there’s anybody here – and you don’t have to out yourself – who has not voted, make sure you have your plan,” said Sherrill in Montclair. She urged her supporters to tell their neighbors and friends to get out and vote. “These conversations are important. And today’s your last day to have them.
“We’re going to fight together for the things we care about. And then, I’m going to leave you with this – as you get everybody out to vote tomorrow. I’m going to remind you guys that New Jersey is not a red state. New Jersey is not a purple state. New Jersey is a blue state. And so, New Jersey, when we vote – we win.
“Let’s go New Jersey.”
Ciattarelli closed, “It’s time – it’s time to vote. It’s time to win. It’s time to change New Jersey. Let’s get this done.”
Please stay with NJBIZ for full election coverage and the latest results, reaction and analysis of a historic night in New Jersey.
